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Companies are always shocked when low-probability events such as an earthquake or a tsunami disrupt their supply chains — as has happened after the tragic events in Japan two weeks ago — because of two fallacies. One is the mistaken belief that no corporation can prepare for such events; they can't even be predicted.
They have systematically and significantly eroded barriers to entry and movement on a global scale. Thanks to the forces described above, we are more connected on a global scale than ever before. The cost and difficulty of coordinating activities across entities, on a global scale, is far lower now.
Here’s a hypothetical illustration of the bullwhip effect: A retailer might experience an X% drop in sales owing to some external event. During an economic crisis, the exaggerated decline in orders can be especially damaging to upstream suppliers that have high fixedcosts tied to production assets. For example , U.S.
And the fixedcost from “touchpoint-to-pilot” are immense. For example, in the case of a $100 million CVC fund, which can close five to 10 investments a year, these costs typically range from $1 to $2 million per startup — not including the administrative and variable costs of the pilot itself.
The second thing that we also saw in our companies is that in an uncertain world, there’s this very weird paradox of, on the one hand, placing really big bets, and, on the other, protecting your flanks against downside events, and putting both of those together. And if we do that, we can’t help but grow revenues per fixedcost.
Big events are endlessly discussed and analyzed. Airplane crashes tend to be major news events; automobile accidents aren''t. How will you generate enough transactions to cover the fixedcosts involved in running your business? As wonderful as these events are, they are exceptions.
Based on my work studying activist strategies, I’ve outlined four hypothetical scenarios below (based on actual events) that demonstrate the different strategies an activist could pursue. However, free cash flow per share remained impressive at both companies, and fixedcost ratios remained somewhat intact.
When to offer it: When your company must quickly fill temporary positions, scale its workforce up or down, access specialized skills without committing to a full-time hire, or outsource certain functions (such as IT or HR). event companies, healthcare facilities, and essential services) or is facing unexpected absences or peak demand periods.
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